Counter's Corner: Counting 101 (Part 2)
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Counter's Corner: Counting 101 (Part 2)
Blackjack
May 3, 2001, 13:27
By Carl Van Eaton http://www.casinomonthly.com

In Part I of Card Counting 101, I showed you the basics of the ten count. In Part II, I will endeavor to show you how to put this skill to devastating use in today's modern casino environment.
Almost every system that I have ever seen over the years makes you go through tedious calculations to determine not only when to bet, but they make you crunch still more numbers to figure out how much you should wager. I've taught literally thousands of players how to count cards over the years. If it's one denominator that they all share in common it's that they have their hands full just trying to count the cards and play basic strategy, let alone performing feats of mental gymnastics on top of all that. Fortunately, there is a much easier way.

Quite simply, what you are going to look for are certain magic numbers that will tell you when to increase your bet. Once you achieve or exceed these magic numbers, you will be authorized to jump your bet. How much that increase should be will be covered in the following chapter. All you need to know for now is that four extra non-tens in each deck is going to put you in a situation where you have an edge over the house. What are four non-tens worth? Why, plus four, of course. Therefore, if the magic number in a one deck game is plus four, what would the magic number for a two deck game be. Two times plus four equals plus eight, right.

MAGIC NUMBERS
Four decks = +16
Six decks = +24
Eight decks = +32

The beauty of these magic numbers is that they can be converted instantly for any number of decks you are facing. How do you know how many decks a casino is using, you ask? Elementary, my dear Watson. Ask them! I mean, are they going to be afraid of a player who not only doesn't know a four deck game from an eight decker, but who also has to consult a basic strategy chart for each and every play? That's the kind of adversary that a casino wants to face.

How about if you count three consecutive shoes and fail to get above a minus count. Does this mean that the system doesn't work? On the contrary, what it means is that during those three shoes the edge was strictly with the house. This means that all those table minimum bets you made were paying your rent at the rate of 1/2 of 1% of every dollar that hit the table.

Now maybe you'll understand why when we finally do reach the promised land it is imperative that we increase our bets as much as our bankroll and the pit boss will allow.

MONEY IN THE BANK

Now that you know how to identify favorable situations, what do you do with it? That, my friend, is between you, your wallet and the pitboss. I mean, you already know that when the house has the edge (any time the count is less than the magic number), you should bet as little as possible. But what happens when you finally reach the promised land?

In the following three sections we'll show you step by step how to:

1. Capitalize on blackjack's vulnerability
2. Get away with BIG bet spreads
3. Make money on the "Insurance" bet

You don't know how many times I've watched a reasonably able card counter find a plus shoe only to wager less money than it takes to break even with the house.

Remember, you are only achieving about a 1% return on money wagered in favorable situations. All those rent bets you made when the house had the edge that were costing you .56% of every dollar wagered, add up.

If you wanted to play even with the house, you'd have to spread from one to four units alone. In other words, you'd have to go from $5 to $20 on a nickel table. I don't know about you, but after putting in all the time and effort necessary to master a winning system, I would never be satisfied to go home with the same amount of money in my pocket that I'd started with.

If you hope to turn a profit, then I'd recommend spreading from 1-10 units. This means that if you play at a $5 table, your bets in favorable situations should average $50. On a $10 table, $100.

One of the big advantages a casino possesses is an unlimited bankroll. They are quite capable of surviving any short term negative swings. If you go to the casino with only a couple hundred dollars, you can easily tap out with a winning system during a short term downswing. Sometimes, you will only have to reach into your pocket once before the profits start rolling in. On other occasions, you might find it necessary to dig deeper in order to wrestle the money away from the house. To be properly armed for battle, I strongly recommend that you come equipped with a bankroll sufficient to cover ten maximum wagers. On a $5 table, this translates to a $500 session bankroll.

As for getting away with a 1-10 spread, that is another matter which we will cover in the next section.

BEAT THE HEAT - Avoiding Casino Countermeasures

While it is true that there are dozens of casinos in this country alone where a $50 bet will attract little or no attention, it is also a fact that some of their lesser brethren tend to see red when you bet green. That does not mean that you should give such places a wide berth. In fact, as long as the posted table limits are acceptable (at least permitting bet spreads of 1 to 40 on nickel tables or 1 to 50 on $2 tables), there is no reason that you should not take advantage of such a generous offer. Here's a solution to keeping the pit boss from boiling over that's no sweat.

It's a documented fact that pit bosses hate card counters and love progression players. Now a progression system is one of the worst ways to play a negative expectation game. However, once the player has the edge, it is one of the best ways to achieve the highest bet spread while attracting the least undue attention.

If you are a typical card counter spreading from 1-10 units in favorable situations, the house is going to catch on sooner or later. You have just told the pit boss, "Card Counter at Work." He'll call upstairs and have someone who knows how to count cards observe your play. If you bet the table minimum when the house has the edge, then dramatically jump your bet when the count is right, it will take no guesswork to determine that you are a counter. Then, the chase is on.

If, on the other hand, you gradually parlay your bets (again only in favorable situations), the same pit boss will not only allow you to play with impunity, he'll probably offer to buy you dinner after the dealing is done.

What I have constructed for you below is a betting progression that will enable you to spread an average 1-10 units while avoiding the casino counter- catchers. To start with, you will need to purchase some $1 chips. Since players routinely do this to tip the dealer, this whim will be happily granted. Placing 10 white chips to the right of your playing chips ($290 in greens and reds), you will use the white chips to track the results of your big bets, both wins and losses.

First of all, it is imperative that you play two hands whenever possible. In the first place, you are less likely to lose both bets. By playing two hands, you are more likely to wind up with at least one pat hand, many times saving your bacon on a stiff. In the second place, a blackjack table is really three tables in one. Many times, players from our school wind up seeing dramatically different results while playing the same system on the same table. Gary on third base is cleaning up, winning hand after hand. Meanwhile, Gus, seated right next to him, can't seem to buy a bet. More importantly, it will greatly help in moving the progression off ground zero, allowing you to reach maximum velocity more quickly. Some times before the end of the first shoe.

Remember, it is only by increasing your wager in favorable situations that you will see a profit. However, just because you have exceeded the magic number does not mean that you are going to win every bet. If that were the case, the casinos would turn those kidney-shaped tables into so much kindling. That is the third and most important reason for gradually increasing our maximum wagers instead of plunging right in.

The typical card counter will move immediately from five to fifty dollars or more the minute he has a sufficient plus count. The only flaw with this theory is that he might know for a fact that those big cards are in there, but he has no idea of where, or even if, he is ever going to see them before the cut card pops up. If he comes equipped with, say, five hundred dollars as his bankroll and he drops ten big bets of fifty dollars each in the first shoe, what is he going to have to do? Simple, he's out of there. Believe me, that scenario is not at all unusual.

As a matter of fact, it doesn't bother me a bit when I lose ten units in a hurry. Why? Because in the game of blackjack, what goes down, must come up. If you lose ten units quickly, you can rest assured that when you roll the progression over, the money will come rolling back in with interest. The beauty of the progression that I have laid out for you on the next page is that you will lose $120 if you drop 10 units and you will gross $480 when you roll the progression over the top. The typical card counter, on the other hand, would have missed out on all that dough because he arrived one shoe too soon and tapped out.

What we're going to do before we dive into the pool is test the water. Not only will that tell us whether the temperature is to our liking, but it will also clue us in to the presence of any alligators so prevalent to casino waters.

Below is a progression for a typical $5 table. As with the count, we will begin our progression at zero. Unlike our count, we will not go back to zero at the end of the shoe, but rather at the end of the session, or should you jump to another table. (The other way to roll over the progression would be if you went plus or minus ten bets.)

                                        $5 PROGRESSION
                       (To be used at a $5 table when maximum wagers are indicated)

                                   -4 to -10 bets = double min ($10)
                                     0 to + 2 bets = 3 units ($15)
                                    +3 to + 4 bets = 5 units ($25)
                                    +5 to + 6 bets = 10 units ($50)
                                   +7 to +10 bets = 15 units ($75)

Setting up your track stack of 10 white ($1) chips, what we're going to do is monitor the results of our big bets only. Why would we want to track our rent bets anyway? So, there you are at a nickel table in Caesar's Palace, when lo and behold, the count goes to +25. Placing three red chips in both your betting areas, you are dealt an eleven and a hard seventeen. Since the dealer is showing a nine, you double on eleven and receive a nine. Turning over his cards, he has a nine in the hole. Quickly, he pays off your double down and takes the $15 that you had wagered on the other hand.

Since you lost one bet and won two on the double down, the net result of your first big bet is up one bet. Taking one chip off the track stack, you place it to the right of the stack. (The right is for units up, the left is for units down.) To mark the neutral position, I sometimes place a $2.50 chip atop the track stack. Since the count has increased to +28, and since you need to be up three bets to jump to a $25 wager, you once more make two $15 bets.

On the next hand, you bust out on both bets. Since you have only one chip to the right of the stack, you know that you were up one bet. Losing two during the previous hand puts you down net one bet. Therefore, you will move the chip from the right hand side of the track stack to the left hand side.

The next maximum wager you make, you wind up with a push and a loss. Quickly, you move a second chip to the left side of the stack (down 2 bets). For the next deck, the count falls below the magic number and you are forced to content yourself with making rent bets. Then, one deck before the cut card, the count skyrockets and you're back in the clover. In fact, on the very next hand you are dealt a blackjack and a pair of eights. Being that the dealer has a four up, he pays off the BJ immediately. Suddenly you find yourself in a quandary.

You know that you should take a chip off the stack to the left, but the dealer just paid you 3 to 2 or 1 1/2 times your wager. There you are thinking, "How do I track a half a bet?" Good question. Answer: you don't. Unless you wind up with two BJ's during the same hand (in which case you'd move three chips to the right), you will always regard a blackjack as but a single win.

Getting back to the hand in play, you push another $15 onto the betting circle to split those eights. The dealer busts and and once again you find yourself ahead by a bet.

On the very next hand you win both bets. Now that you find yourself with three white chips to the right of your track stack, it's time to jump both your bets to $25. Winning on a double down and pushing on your other bet puts you ahead by 5 bets, so you go to $50 on each. Unfortunately, the cut card came out and the dealer reshuffles. Nice try.

The shoe might be over, but don't touch that track stack. The first big bet you make in the next shoe will be at the $50 level. Remember, unless you move to another table or wind up at +10 or -10 bets, you will always resume the the progression where you left off.

Here's a tip to make your life simple: Write the basic strategy down on one side of a 3x5 card and the progression on the opposite side. Feel free to show it to the pit boss. He'll no doubt compliment you on your obvious knowledge of the game and ask if you'd care to be rated for a comp. He'll never for a minute guess that you are in fact a card counter.




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