I’ll be
honest, I wrote most of this column a year or so ago. However, I have been
getting emails with follow up questions for the entire year so obviously some
readers found the material useful. I’ve updated it and included the moneyline
conversion chart. In my next column I will try to cover some of the follow up
topics as well. If you are new to betting baseball, or have never tried
moneylines in football or basketball, this is a great column for you.
Last week we talked
about which is more important, hitting or pitching, when picking winners in
baseball. This week I want to discuss moneylines in baseball and how the
mathematics involved should impact your wagering decision.
Lets start with a
question. Which of these bets would you prefer to place? $300 to win $100 on
a heavy favorite (-300) with a 75% chance of winning. $150 to win $100 on a
medium favorite (-150) with a 60% chance of winning $100 to win $200 on an
underdog (+200) with a 33.33% chance of winning
This is a trick
question; the correct answer is that each scenario is essentially the same with
an expected return of $0.
In scenario ‘a’,
75% of the time you win $100 but you lose $300 the other 25%. Expected
return = (.75 * 100) – (.25 * 300) = 75 – 75 = 0
In scenario ‘b’,
60% of the time you win $100 but you lose $150 the other 40%. Expected
return = (.60 * 100) – (.40 * 150) = 60 – 60 = 0
In scenario ‘c’,
33.33% of the time you win $200 but you lose $100 the other 66.66%. Expected
return = (.3333 * 200) – (.6666 * 100) = 66.66 – 66.66 = 0
I think you can see
the pattern here. To calculate the percentage of wins required to break-even for
any moneyline use the following formula:
Required
Win % = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of Win)
E.g.: a line of
–110 implies a risk of $110 to win $100 so…. Required win % = 110 / (110 +
100) = 110/210 = 52.38%
Many readers will
have seen this number before in my columns because this is the win percentage
needed to reach the break-even point when betting spreads and totals in football
and basketball. I can hear the collective groan from here as you remember why
you hated high school algebra but I implore you to spend a few minutes on this
if you want to be profitable at baseball or any other sport. However, let me
save you a lot of work by adding in the following chart:
Moneyline |
Loss |
Win |
Win % Required |
-320 |
-320 |
100 |
76.19% |
-300 |
-300 |
100 |
75.00% |
-280 |
-280 |
100 |
73.68% |
-270 |
-270 |
100 |
72.97% |
-260 |
-260 |
100 |
72.22% |
-250 |
-250 |
100 |
71.43% |
-240 |
-240 |
100 |
70.59% |
-230 |
-230 |
100 |
69.70% |
-220 |
-220 |
100 |
68.75% |
-210 |
-210 |
100 |
67.74% |
-200 |
-200 |
100 |
66.67% |
-180 |
-180 |
100 |
64.29% |
-170 |
-170 |
100 |
62.96% |
-160 |
-160 |
100 |
61.54% |
-150 |
-150 |
100 |
60.00% |
-140 |
-140 |
100 |
58.33% |
-130 |
-130 |
100 |
56.52% |
-120 |
-120 |
100 |
54.55% |
-110 |
-110 |
100 |
52.38% |
-105 |
-105 |
100 |
51.22% |
-100 |
-100 |
100 |
50.00% |
105 |
-100 |
105 |
48.78% |
110 |
-100 |
110 |
47.62% |
120 |
-100 |
120 |
45.45% |
130 |
-100 |
130 |
43.48% |
140 |
-100 |
140 |
41.67% |
150 |
-100 |
150 |
40.00% |
160 |
-100 |
160 |
38.46% |
170 |
-100 |
170 |
37.04% |
180 |
-100 |
180 |
35.71% |
200 |
-100 |
200 |
33.33% |
210 |
-100 |
210 |
32.26% |
220 |
-100 |
220 |
31.25% |
230 |
-100 |
230 |
30.30% |
240 |
-100 |
240 |
29.41% |
250 |
-100 |
250 |
28.57% |
260 |
-100 |
260 |
27.78% |
270 |
-100 |
270 |
27.03% |
280 |
-100 |
280 |
26.32% |
290 |
-100 |
290 |
25.64% |
300 |
-100 |
300 |
25.00% |
Just a quick note
or two to make sure you are all clear on the chart. Have a look at the line for
–180. If you lose, you lose $180 but a win only gets you $100. Thus you need to
win 64.29% of the time to break even. Similarly, looking at +170, we see a loss
only costs us $-100 but a win gets us $170 so we only need to win 37.04% of the
time. This chart will be sufficient for almost all baseball lines and a large
portion of football and basketball moneylines.
“Why is this
important?” you ask. Simple. Every time you look at a moneyline, you need to
know what winning % you need to break even. If you expect the –300 favorite from
scenario a to win 80% of the time, than you’ve got a betting opportunity. If you
expect a win only 70% of the time, than you should pass and move on to analyzing
the next game.
I notice that most
handicappers prefer to play underdogs and small favorites while public bettors
like the big favorites. Which is better? There is no right answer as both can be
right and both can be wrong, it simply depends on the game. Handicappers like
underdogs and small favorites because these are picks that are harder for the
average player to come up with. If you called a betting service and were told “I
really like the Red Sox with Pedro Martinez on the hill hosting the Tigers
tonight” would you be happy that you had just played $10 or $20 or $50 for that
pick? No way! Pedro and the Red Sox should beat the Tigers every time out. Heck,
our co-ed office softball team took 2-of-3 from the Tigers in spring training.
Well maybe not, but you get the idea; if you are paying for a pick, you want
something a little less obvious.
Another reason
handicappers prefer betting the dog is it eliminates big losses. If Pedro has an
off night and the Tigers get the upset win over a –300 or -350 favorite, would
you call that handicapping service again? Probably not. But, if the same
handicapper hits a win with a +160 or +200 dog, you would very likely be
impressed and would be far more likely to use the service again. The
handicappers aren’t being dishonest in any way; it’s just the nature of their
business.
Although
handicappers shy away from big favorites, you don’t have to. Looking back at the
first month of the season, I see the Yankees closed as a –210 favorite or higher
on twelve occasions. They won 10 of those games. Betting to win $100 on those 12
games would have meant risking a total of $2915 but would have made you $435, a
decent return of 14.9%. I am sure I could look through a few other teams and
find example where risking the big juice would have resulted in losses, but my
point is that you do not need to avoid games just because the moneylines are
big. You might choose to, but you don’t have to.
Remember that it
doesn’t matter how big the price or how much you get back as long as you know
where the break-even point is. Keep this in mind the next time someone says “I
never lay more than -140 on a baseball game.” You can now tell them when they
should. I’ll be back in a couple of weeks with a little more on
moneylines.
I always welcome
comments, questions and suggestions via email at rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie President
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