Counting the Cards...or Playing the Odds
Online Gambling
May 14, 2001, 18:41
By Bruno Casciato http://www.gamblingonlinemagazine.com
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Card Counting is a skill practiced by a small number of successful gamblers. Are they just gamblers? The likelihood is that mentally they could match the finest doctors, lawyers and rocket scientists. It takes a special kind of mind to memorize the exact sequence in which the cards rotate from the pack to the table and back. It's not a skill which can be learned by people whose minds get bored quickly, or for those hot for action. No deal heat for these guys. Not only are they are cool, its essential that they're calculating. The card counting practitioner needs to couple his mental ability with his statistical skills to determine his probability of success or failure.
Memorizing the sequence of up to 312 cards is beyond the mental capabilities of 99.5% of card players, but statistical calculation is not, so don't despair. And you'll be happy to know that statistical calcualtion gets easier with fewer players at the table which leads to more occasions in which one can grasp and assess the cards being dealt. In online casino games card counting skills don't confer any advantage. It's just you against the house with the rules on display. In an online game you are isolated from the actions of other players so the statistical calculations, the ones that anyone can master, become all the more important. With a little study and practice, you can master the skill that can help you raise your odds enormously. Additionally, knowledge of odds is transferable between the computer, the card table and the racetrack. So it doesn't matter where you use these skills, they can always pay off.
Everyone gets taught arithmetic at school, and a little application of mental arithmetic here and there will be all you need to learn to calculate the odds of your hand winning. Provided you are prepared to lend your mind to calculating each hand, you'll be able to increase your chances of winning and you'll bet with greater confidence. The more confidence you have in your game the more enjoyment and pleasure you'll derive from the game and you'll thus increase your prospects of a being a winning player.
More times than not, players forget that they can calculate the odds of their cards being winners. If you are preemptive and impulsive be sure to curb these aspects of your personality when gambling online. But don't worry, the ability to know the odds of your hand winning will help you keep your head. Don't ever forget winning is about attitude.
A pack holds 52 cards and that is the basis of all calculations. The odds of nominating any single card, say the Ace of Hearts, to be dealt from a pack is 51/1 (52 less 1 over 1), the odds of being wrong making this call are 1/51. The odds of picking an Ace at random are 48/4 or 12/1/. The odds of nominating a random (or matching) pair, say an Ace and a Jack, to be dealt from a full pack are 168/1 (13 x 13 less 1). The odds of the Jack, actually following the Ace are 51/4 (52 less the Ace leaves 51 cards of which there are 4 Jacks or 11.75/1). The odds of getting the suit right are 39/13 or 3/1 and likewise the odds of being wrong are 1/3.
The process of understanding the odds of the cards needed from a pack or the cards held by another player involves calculating the odds using the the number of cards which are in the deck; an example follows below.
In a poker game based on five cards, with two players remaining if you hold four Jack's and a Queen it follows that: you'll be beaten by, 4 Aces and 1 of the 7 remaining pictiure cards, or 4 Kings and any of the 3 remaining Queens or an Ace. And you'll win if your opponent holds any other set of cards.
You don't know the stacked players' cards and let's say there were 2 of them and the total pot is $4, $1 of which you've stacked already. In this instance the stacked must be included in your calculations. In situations where you see the stacked cards you discount them. This enables you to have a more accurate grasp of what can happen.
The probability that your opponent holds a winning hand is 221/1 or 0.452% against. [the calculation is arrived at as follows - 52 less 5=47 divided by 4 Aces times 43 (the remaining cards) divided by the 7 possible cards that can contribute to a winning hand.]
The probability that you've won is 221/1 or (99.548%). Remember that in all situations the total sum of all individual possible outcomes must always come to 100%.
Each bet you stake money (odds of 50%). The odds of reward are the total return available to you divided by your total stake, in this case 54/46 against. So if you bet $10 you stand to win $13, and a total return of$24 for $11 staked. This is a good value bet.
Value is measured by subtracting from the actual probability of the odds of reward, in this instance 99.548% less 50%, the quote is therefore 49.548% positive. If the Actual Probability is less than the odds of reward, then your prospective bets are termed bad value.
In the long run the bet will lose 4 times in 10,000. This gives you a theoretical possiblity, to a single bet, on each occasion of winning $99,550 plus anything that's already in the pot. But if you can continue to bet the odds of reward will get smaller but never fall below evens.
So theoretically we see that a long drawn out duel with the house is only worthwhile when you are confident that the probability of your hand winning is high, preferably the range between 99 to 100%. In online games with multiple players it is worthwhile avoiding long drawn out battles, as the odds don't improve. The actual value diminishes with each additional bet.
If you concentrate on securing the value, your chances walking away a winner increase dramatically.
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