Building a Bankroll on Back-to-Back Games
Sports Betting
Jul 21, 2001, 12:03
By Ray Wild http://www.gamblingonlinemagazine.com
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Handicapping the NBA offers a number of unique challenges. One of them is the fact that NBA teams play so many games through the season, and so many of them on back-to-back nights. For all their physical conditioning, NBA players are human beings, and playing intense basketball two nights in a row is exhausting.
Astute sports gamblers consider the conditions under which the team is playing. When the team is playing. When the team is playing back-to-back games, they assume the team playing is "weakened" somewhat, and more vulnerable to losing. But if enough gamblers wager against the tired team, the line will be bid down and whatever value was there originally will be lost.
That leaves us to ponder two questions.
1)Does the line vary much when one team is playing back-to-back?
2)Is there is still value in the line when one team is playing back-to-back? And, if so is it better to wager against the herd of bettors who are wagering against the tired team?
LINE MOVEMENTS IN BAK-TO-BACK GAMES
We looked through data over the past four seasons to see if the Vegas line was affected in back-to-back games, and by how many points it traveled. We wanted to know if the line moved, but also if it moved too much, over-estimated the weariness of the tired team.
Our research found that, on average, the line moved between 1 to 1.5 points when one of the teams was tired. This seems like a very modest line move, and suggests that there might be a lot of value wagering against the tired team. We poured through four years of NBA data to find out if the line movement created a value play for, or against, the team playing back-to-back nights.
Including all regular season and playoff games, this is what we found:
Wins and losses in back-to-back games
Season wins-losses units
2000 235-257 -47.7 units
1999 195-182 -5.2 units
1998 195-210 -36 units
1997 241-243 -26.3 units
In general, the tired team did not fail against the spread as often as we would have predicted. But, as in all things related to sports gambling, we are not interested so much in gross numbers. Does it matter if the team is a home team or a visitor? A fav or a dog? Coming off a win or a loss? We looked at different cross-sections of the data to uncover the hidden veins of profitability.
HOME TEAMS ARE A BAD BET
When we studied the home vs. away cross-section of the data, we found that a lot of the losses came from betting on the home team playing its second game in two nights. If you wagered on every home team, here's what your record would like:
Home teams on second night of a back-to-back games:
Season wins-losses bet on bet against
<p>
2000 61-88 -35.8 units +20.9 units
1999 74-80 -14 units -2 units
1998 56-68 -18.8 units +5.2 units
1997 74-76 -9.6 units -5.6 units
1996 73-78 -12.8 units -2.3 units
Betting against the home team playing consecutive night games was profitable in 2000. But we can't generalize it to other years. Nevertheless, it's clear that in every year, without exception, the home team was a lower-probability bet if they played the night before.
In contrast, the visiting team was usually a good bet when they played their second game in two nights. They weren't always a profitable system play. But they had a higher percentage chance of covering on any particular day.
Season wins-losses bet on bet against
<p>
2000 174-169 -11.9 units -22.4 units
1999 121-102 +8.8 units -29.2 units
1998 139-162 -29.2 units +9.1 units
1997 167-167 -16.7 units -16.7 units
1996 155-142 -1.2 units -28.5 units
Why did away teams fare better against the spread playing back-to-back games? This might be a result of the fact that away teams tend to compress a lot of games into their road trips. For instance, only about 10% of all home games are back-to-back games. But over 30% of away games are played on consecutive nights. Maybe road teams become accustomed to playing two nights in a row.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
The fact that a team is playing back-to-back games is not, in itself, enough to recommend a wager. But there are some aspects to look for. In combination with back-to-back games, these elements do make a difference.
1.Age
One of the wworst teams in back-to-back games last year was the New York Knicks (4-15 ATS). With so much of their offense riding on Patrick Ewing, a tired Ewing dragged them down. And despite being exceptionally fit for a 37-year-old, Ewing does not recuperate as quickly as he did 15 years ago.
On the other hand, look at a team like the LA Lakers, with 21-year-old Kobe Bryant. The Lakers were 15-6 in back-to-back situations. Same thing with the Minnesota Timberwolves, which starts 23-year-old Kevin Garnett. The T-Wolves were 11-5 on the second night. Consider the age of the players. Younger guys recuperate faster.
2.Motivation
Every team wants to win. But some teams can sustain that intensity over longer periods of time than can other teams. When a team is just "going through the motions" they are more likely to let their energy fall in second night situations. Case in point are the Chicago Bulls. They knew they were not going to the playoffs last year, and when they had to sustain their intensity for two nights in a row, they ran out of steam. That's why they went 7-16 ATS on the second night. Same with the Atlanta Hawks, who had all kinds of player and coach problems last season. They turned in a 8-14 ATS performance when they had to keep their game face on two nights in a row.
On the other hand, a team hell-bent on winning can sustain its intensity into game two. The Lakers performed marvelously against the spread last year. Same thing with Indiana (15-6 ATS) and Portland (14-8 ATS).
3.Playing time
Despite some older players, the Portland Trailblazers managed an 14-8 ATS record in day-afetr games. One possible reason is because they rotated playing time around between their many stars. Everyone got a lot of time to rest, so playing the second day in a row was not as big a strain as it was for teams that did not rotate their starters much.
Look also for games where the coach pulls the starters late in the game to rest them for the next day's game. That often happens when a dominant team plays a weak team, and runs up a respectable lead. In that situation, the team is likely to maintain its energy levels in the next day's game, and bring home the cover.
4.Overtime
Another example is when a team wins an emotional game in game one, they have trouble maintaining that intensity the next night. Especially when that game goes into overtime. Players are human beings, and it takes a lot of intensity and energy to play a close rival in overtime. That kind of game will drain you for the next game.
For instance, on March 31, 2000, Charlotte and Toronto were tied for fifth place in the East. The Hornets beat the Raptors 110-101 in overtime to move into sole position of fifth, and push the Raptors down the ladder. The next night, they were six point favs as visitors to the lowly Chicago Bulls. Everyone expected an easy Charlotte cover, but they barely managed a 90-87 victory.
Same situation with Miami, when they beat their arch rivals the New York Knicks on April 9, 2000, by the narrowest margin of 95-94. In fact Tim Hardaway sunk the game winner at the buzzer in over-time and the Miami crowd wept. But the Heat couldn't keep their intensity up the next night, when they lost to the struggling 76ers 96-80. You have to save something for the next day.
Marathon Road Trips
Some road trips are a true test of endurance. That was the case back on April 4, 2000, when the Cleveland Cavaliers ripped the Detroit Pistons 117-98. The Pistons had downed Charlotte the night before, but on this day coach George Irvine said, "Our team is tired. We've played five games in seven nights." And said forward Grant Hill, "We just didn'thave it tonight. We didn't have the extra oomph that was needed. We need a day to recover and start off positive next week."
PLAY BACK-TO-BACK GAMES CAREFULLY
It's easy to convince yourself to wager against the team that played last night. There are enough examples burned into our memories, of teams that played alarmingly bad ball on tired legs. But it's such a simple matter. Bettors have already adjusted the line to account for the weariness in game two. However, there is value in playing back-to-back games if you know what to look for.
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