Professional Basketball Betting - The Case of the Shrinking Bankroll Sports Betting Apr 8, 2001, 23:34 By Maryann Guberman http://www.gamblingonlinemagazine.com

Practically every serious sports bettor alive will tell you that professional basketball is the easiest spread-based sport to beat. Why then does it seem your bankroll is shrinking?

Let me give you the skinny.  You're not going to succeed as a basketball handicapper if you use the same information everyone else uses to pick a side.  The fly in your ointment is the linemaker - the man who decides the pointspread.  If you've done any wagering at all, you know that the linemaker's original goal is balance - post a number that will get an equal number of bettors on each team.  If 100 people bet on Side A and another hundred bet one Side B of a single game, half of them will lose their wagers and the other half will win.  The bookmaker will get his cut from the 11-10 proposition, commonly known as vigorish. To come up with a perfect number, the linemaker has to have an invisible stethoscope on the heartbeat of his players.  He has to figure out how they are going to bet before they do - and he does a darn good job of it because most of his customers use the same information to form their opinions.

What kind of information do they use?

In truth, a player can combine both methods and achieve positive results but either or both methods have to be anchored with information about how a particular team is performing now!

The trend handicapper can use one year, two years, ten years if he wants, to find some kind of pattern between teams but those patterns are tentative at best if they aren't tempered by the counter argument presented by the stats-based handicapper.  "How," he might say, "can you predict the outcome of a Bulls game now that Michael Jordan is gone?"

Trend-based handicapping is generally the easier choice for those who don't have the time or energy to keep detailed records - easier because much of the work has been done by professionals who sell their information either in books or via the web.  Mti Sports out of Cleveland, for example, publishes an annual schedule and log book that breaks down eight serious trends possibilities for the upcoming season.  These center around back-to-back road games, rest versus no rest, home series, four games in five days, the Texas Triangle and other "Treacherous Trips."   For more in-depth information, the company's subscription-based website www.sportsdatabase.com offers serious data.  Another web-based operation, which includes free trends, can be found at www.dalversports.com. The value of trends can go down quickly as the bookmaker finds them and builds them into the line so it's important to watch indications that the pointspread is higher than it should be.

And that's where the stats-based handicapping comes in.  If nothing else, you should be able to make your own NBA line - even if you have to base it on the same information everyone else has.  Unless you're unusually good at linemaking, you're not going to use these numbers as anything but a starting point.  At its simplest, a line consists of the average number of points scored and allowed by Team A compared to the average number of points scored and allowed by Team B (the opponent).  Getting more sophisticated (with more accurate numbers), you will have to assign a point value to other factors such as injuries, fatigue, and the like.  Keep in mind that while you can use year-to-date numbers, it's probably better to go back only about ten or eleven games as this will point out how the team is performing now.  Additionally, you should use home statistics for the home team and visiting statistics for the visitor.

If this kind of workload appeals to you, check out the demo software produced by a company called All Pro at www.allprosoftware.com/BB.  Or, for an easier option, where statistical updates are free to purchasers, try www.pdssports.com.  You can also download a demo from their site.

In the meantime, here are some reasons why your bankroll isn't growing:

1. You're putting too much emphasis on home court advantage. But stats from the past several years indicate that perhaps those numbers are no longer valid.  At the very least, if you use home and away statistics when creating your line, you shouldn't have to make any adjustments.

Here, for example, are the year-end numbers for the Lakers.  Notice that when the smoke cleared, they actually scored four points better at home, not two or three.

The Chicago Bulls, on the other hand, underperformed in comparison to the traditional home-court number, scoring merely one point better at home than on the road.

CHICAGO BULLS

	AVERAGE SCORE	S/U	ATS	FAV	DOG
HOME	85-90	12-29	16-24	0-4	16-20
AWAY	84-97	5-36	20-21	0-0	20-21
OVERALL	84-94	17-65	36-45	0-4	36-41

(You can find statistics like these, in even more detail at sites such as NSS.net

2.  You are not getting the best number.  Traditionally, its best to bet a favorite early and a dog late because favorites usually become heavier.  With just a single wagering account, you'll have to pay strict attention to the numbers so you can select the best one.  With more than one account, you can compare the lines.

3.  You're betting too many games.  The NBA is a long season.  Choose your best games.

4.  You're betting too few games.  If you have a good winning percentage, check your records to see if you can squeeze out additional games.  Your percentage might drop a point or two, but your overall bottom line will go up.

5.  You're betting too many exotics.  Parlays and teasers have long been known as sucker bets for the player and cash cows for the bookmaker.  Unless you're handicapping at a 75% or better clip, parlays and teasers won't work for you.  Limit yourself to straight wagers as a mainstay and reserve a small bankroll for exotics.

6.  You're letting "fandom" get in the way.  It's natural to want to wager on your home boys.  If you're betting with your heart, at least do it based on solid handicapping - or with a minimal wager.

7.  You're on tilt.  In gambling parlance, going on tilt means you've lost and you're now trying to get even by increasing your action.  Don't do it.  If you're good enough in the long run, you will win.

8.  You don't have a good money management plan.  For years and years, players have been trying to find the optimal betting strategy for pointspreads.  Some advocate a percentage of bankroll; others prefer a flat bet based on their average win percentage; still others bet by units - one unit (set amount of money) for medicore bets, two units for better plays, three to five units for best bets.  With a percentage of bankroll, you are increasing the amount of your wager when you're on a winning streak and decreasing it when you start to lose more often than you win.  With flat bets, you wager the same amount on every game.  With unit bets, you are judging, rating and placing a value on your own ability to handicap.

Do a reality check before you look at tomorrow's schedule.  If you find yourself lacking in more than three areas listed here, do more homework.  Your sportsbook won't like it but your wallet will appreciate it.