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A Start On Handicapping The Thoroughbred Races
Sports Betting
Aug 4, 2000, 14:58
By M. Wilson Staff
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Let's Start Handicapping on Thoroughbred Racing
Here Are Some Simple Ways to Bet If You Don't Know How to Bet On the Horses
You want at least a chance at winning, or you won't bother. Experienced horsemen can tell you that it actually is possible to establish a pattern of winning money at thoroughbred racetracks, contrary to the popular belief that "You can't beat the races." Certain statistics hold true at the racetrack, and you can use them to apply to a wagering strategy. For example:
Favorites win one-third of the time. This, of course, is the strongest indicator you can run across, the ranking of a horse as favorite. It is also true that the second favorite and the third will win their respective proportion of races as well.
On the Tote Board, a horse who has garnered a high percentage of the total money bet to Win should have roughly the same percentage of money bet on him in the Place and Show pools. Let's assume that for a race, horse #1 has the majority of the money bet on him in the Win pool. If40% of the money bet in the Win pool is on horse #1, then about 40% of the money in the Place and Show pools should also be on horse #1; if it's noticeably less, then it's said to be overlaid. Since in parimutuel wagering, you are trying to take advantage of other bettors' mistakes, you should put money on those Place and Show pools. And if horse #1 wins, (as a favorite has a good chance of doing) your take from those bets is increased mightily since it is being divided up with far fewer people. That's one thing to watch for, overlaid bets; but the disadvantage is that you have to do your betting at the last minute in case the percentage of the bets swings back to an equal ratio between the pools.
Another method you might use to decide which horses to bet on is by looking at their average earnings per race. Check the racing form for the total amount a horse has earned during all its runs, and divide it by the number of races he's been in. Simply betting on the top earner in each race will actually give you an edge of nearly 2/3 over the general racing public's record of wins/losses over time. Now, let's not pretend this is great, because the general racing public loses consistently, about 20% of all the money wagered. But it's interesting, isn't it? And you could do a lot better than that if you really applied yourself and learned more about the horses, the tracks, the trainers, and the jockeys.
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